SHFE tin continues to fluctuate rangebound at a high level, while the spot market remains sluggish [SMM tin midday review]

SHFE Tin and LME Tin Market Review at Noon on July 4, 2025

​​Morning Session Trend​​: Today, SHFE tin continued its high-level, narrow-range fluctuation pattern. It opened at 269,010 yuan/mt (a slight drop of 0.11% from the previous night session), reaching a high of 271,300 yuan/mt and a low of 267,000 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 267,770 yuan/mt at noon, down 0.46%, with open interest remaining stable at 31,100 lots.

​​Capital Game Characteristics​​: Bulls and bears repeatedly contested the 269,000 yuan/mt level, with sluggish trading activity reflecting the market's wait-and-see attitude towards macro policies and supply-demand signals.

​​LME Tin Contracts​​

​​Overnight Performance​​: LME tin closed at $33,695/mt, down $110 (a drop of 0.33%). Key Support Level: The $33,000/mt support level remains solid, with low inventory offsetting macro pressures.

The June non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations (with 147,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%), strengthening expectations for the US Fed to delay interest rate cuts, and pushing the US dollar index higher, which suppressed metal prices. However, the lingering easing expectations from the unexpected negative ADP employment (a decrease of 33,000) still exist, with the market maintaining an 80% bet on the probability of a September interest rate cut.

​​Countdown to US-China Tariff Exemptions​​: The 90-day exemption period is approaching on July 9. If the US imposes additional tariffs on Chinese consumer electronics, it will directly impact export orders for tin solder.

​​Domestic Policy Support​​: The PV "anti-cut-throat competition" policy optimizes the industry's competitive landscape, with emerging demand from new energy vehicle electronics, AI computing power equipment, etc., providing structural support.

​​Negative Feedback Evident​​: Despite high spot premiums, trading activity remains sluggish, with traders' daily average trading volume at only 10 mt. Downstream buyers are cautious and only make just-in-time procurement.

​​Fluctuation Range​​: The most-traded SHFE tin contract has a support level of 265,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level of 270,000 yuan/mt. LME tin has a support level of $33,000 and a resistance level of $34,000.